“From here on out, every game feels like a playoff game.” That was Justin Rankin’s quote earlier this week on The Jason Gregor Show, and he couldn’t be more right.
Let’s get into the math for a second. The reality is that the Elks probably need to go 3-0 the rest of the way and hope both Calgary and Winnipeg implode at 0-3. Tied records of 8-10 or 9-9 might sneak them in, but the tiebreaking procedure gets complicated. The safest path is a perfect finish for Edmonton and complete collapses from the Stamps and Bombers.
This week’s game against Winnipeg can be won or lost in several ways, but as usual with the Bombers, it starts in the trenches. Edmonton’s defence ranks ninth overall in the CFL and sits last in five of 11 major categories. The good news? Their best metric is rush defence, ranking third in the league while allowing just 95.3 yards per game. That’s impressive considering the constant substitutions, injuries, and roster shuffling along the defensive line.
The problem is Winnipeg leads the CFL in rushing offence, averaging 121.7 yards per game. They’re second-last in passing yards per game, while Edmonton has the league’s worst pass defence. Still, the Bombers’ bread and butter is the run game, and that’s where the Elks’ defensive strength lies. If Edmonton can take that away, they give themselves a real chance.
The return of Jared Brinkman to the interior line will help. The Week 1 quartet of Brinkman, Ceresna, Smith, and Barlow has been through a lot, but Brinkman has been the most consistent. He’s been exactly what this team needs him to be. The defensive front has played its best football of the season lately, and now’s the time to prove those efforts matter.
On offence, the game plan should be familiar: run it through Justin Rankin. Fresh off a two-year extension, Rankin leads the CFL in “Big Plays” (rushes of 20+ yards or receptions of 30+) with 15. He’s the bell cow — use him that way.
In the passing game, keep it simple. Short routes. Drags. Curls. Five-and-outs. Cody Fajardo has struggled with the deep ball — not necessarily in accuracy, but in power. Too many long throws have died a few yards short, forcing receivers to adjust and leaving points on the board. Keep it efficient. Winnipeg owns the third-ranked defence in the CFL; don’t let them dictate tempo. Tire them out with sustained drives, make them react, and stay on the field through Rankin and short passing.
Now, back to playoff math. The simplest path is to go 3-0 while Winnipeg and Calgary both go 0-3, putting the Elks at 9-9 and securing third in the West.
This week’s matchup is especially intriguing because the Bombers won the first meeting by 13 points. That means if Edmonton wins by 14 or more, they’ll own the tiebreaker. If they win by exactly 13 and both teams finish with the same record, it comes down to divisional record — where Winnipeg currently leads 3-5 to Edmonton’s 2-5.
A three-way tie between Calgary, Edmonton, and Winnipeg would go to head-to-head winning percentage. Calgary holds the advantage with three wins over Winnipeg this season and could finish 4-2 or 5-1 in that tiebreak scenario. Winnipeg sits at 1-3, and Edmonton at 1-2. The Elks would need to win at least one of their final two divisional games to have a shot if everyone ends 8-10. But to make that matter, they must beat Winnipeg by at least 14.
If the Elks finish 2-1 and end up 8-10, it only matters if they win this game by that margin. Winnipeg could easily drop their final three games (at Edmonton, vs. Saskatchewan, vs. Montreal), so it’s not impossible.
In short, the formula is simple. Just go 3-0. Handle your business. Worry about the rest later. Calgary at 0-3 might be wishful thinking with Toronto coming up, but that’s not Edmonton’s concern yet.
First things first: beat Winnipeg.
Prediction: Edmonton 33, Winnipeg 19.
