The Edmonton Elks have been in playoff mode the past two weeks, and both times they answered the bell and defeated Saskatchewan and Winnipeg.
They have another massive game Friday night in BC against the Lions.
The Elks’ playoff chances aren’t great. They need a win in BC, but they also need Toronto to defeat Calgary and/or Saskatchewan to beat Winnipeg. They need one of Calgary or Winnipeg to lose to keep their playoff hopes alive.
Obviously, they can only control the outcome of their game, and the Green and Gold have played well in their previous two must-win situations. The Lions have won four games in a row and are the hottest team in the CFL, and they are rolling offensively.
They lead in many offensive categories:
Offensive points: 481
Touchdowns: 53
Avg. yard per play: 7.93
Avg. gain per rush: 6.1
Avg. gain on 1st down: 8.3
Passing yards: 5151
Sacks allowed: 18
Here’s where the Elks rank in those same categories:
Offensive points: 361 (8th)
Touchdowns: 36 (T-6th)
Avg. yard per play: 6.28 (6th)
Avg. gain per rush: 5.3 (4th)
Avg. gain on 1st down: 6.1 (T-8th)
Passing yards: 3890 (9th)
Sacks allowed: 46 (8th)
The Elks’ offence has to play well, because it is difficult to limit the Lions’ offence. They are a big-play offence. They lead the league in passing yards, but they are 5th in completions with 359. Toronto leads with 453.
The Lions lead the league in second-down conversion rate at 53.9%. Edmonton is last at 44.3%. Part of that was due to being extremely cautious with their play calling for much of the season. We’ve seen the Elks become more aggressive lately.
No play illustrated that more than Justin Rankin’s 64-yard TD run on third-and-two. The Elks scrimmaged at their own 46-yard line early in the third quarter, but head coach Mark Kilam decided to gamble. It was a great call.
Teams that gamble on 3rd and two gain a 1st down 67% of the time, yet teams only go for it 35% of the time. Hopefully, that decision is a sign of things to come in the future for Kilam and offensive coordinator Jordan Maksymic. It was great seeing an aggressive play call, especially when they have the most explosive offensive weapon in the league with Rankin.
With their season on the line Friday night, they need to take some risks. I’d love to see them gamble on third down any time it is three yards or less. The odds are in their favour.
Edmonton has played very well in its past five games. They’ve beaten Calgary, Saskatchewan, and Winnipeg, while losing in Hamilton and Toronto. However, they controlled both of those games but couldn’t finish them off in the final moments. I felt they were too passive in their play calling late in games, and it cost them. It is a tough lesson, but the call against the Bombers showed me they’ve learned from those mistakes.
Friday’s game will be the toughest yet. Nathan Rourke and the Lions’ offence are rolling. The Elks’ defence will need to pressure him, and they have to limit the big plays. Easier said than done, but if you want to win in the playoffs, that’s what has to happen, because this is essentially a playoff game for the Elks.
Win this one, and the game against Calgary next week in Edmonton could be for the final playoff spot.
QUICK NOTES…
— If the Elks make the playoffs, Rankin should get strong consideration for Most Outstanding Player. He will be the Elks nominee, and if they get in, he has a strong case to represent the West.
— Rankin leads the CFL with 12 rushes of 20+ yards. Brady Oliveira is second with seven, while Dedrik Mills is third with six. No other running back is close to his big-play capabilities this season. He
— Lions WR Keon Hatcher leads the league with 1516 receiving yards. He also leads with 563 yards after catch (YAC). The Elks have to contain him and be aware of his ability to make plays once the ball is in his hands.
— The Lions also have Justin McInnis, who is fourth in receiving yards at 1115 and Ayden Eberhardt, who has 713 yards and leads the league with 18.3 yards per catch.
— Sean Whyte leads the league in field goal percentage at 94.6%. He’s made 35 of 37. The Lions have attempted the fewest field goals, but when they have to kick one, Whyte is money.
— While the Lions’ offence is near the top in most categories, the Lions’ defence ranks in the bottom third of the league in points allowed and touchdowns allowed. They’ve done that despite sitting second in yards allowed/play at 6.5. They are susceptible to the big play. The Lions have allowed the second-most plays of 30+ yards in the league.
