For the third time this month, it feels like the Elks are playing in their biggest game of the season. This time, it’s out in Vancouver against the streaking BC Lions, who have won four in a row, six of their last eight, and remain the only team in the West that Edmonton hasn’t beaten.
The Elks know the importance of this one, but they also know the fate of the Winnipeg and Saskatchewan game — which kicks off two and a half hours earlier — will play heavily into their playoff picture. According to Derek Taylor from the league, there’s an outside chance that if BC, Calgary, Edmonton, and Winnipeg all finish 9-9, Winnipeg would finish fourth, meaning Edmonton would be top four and therefore a playoff team. I don’t know how the math works for that based on the tiebreaking procedures we’ve been given, but if that’s the case, it’s also a path. Regardless, it’s safe to say that because of that unbelievably unlikely scenario, the Elks are hoping to win out while Winnipeg loses out. That in itself becomes a taller task with all the players Saskatchewan is resting, including starting QB Trevor Harris, and with Winnipeg coming in as a 6.5-point favourite. So if you’re the Elks, all you can worry about is taking care of what you can control — and that’s winning tonight vs. BC.
The task looks daunting if you look at the statistics. BC is first in points per game, first in net offence, first in passing yards per game, and first in offensive touchdowns scored. Yikes. The other side of that coin is that Edmonton is tied for last overall in defensive ranking. That includes last in net offence allowed and last in pass yards against. But those stats don’t necessarily tell the whole story of this Elks defence. They’ve gotten better every week. They seem to have found defensive line and secondary lineups that are gelling. They’re getting interceptions. They’re finally standing tall defensively. The problem is they dug such a hole early in the season that, despite their much-improved play, they still rank near the bottom. But this is an Elks defence that has only allowed 30 points once since July 13 — and it took a last-second game-winning field goal for Toronto to cross that threshold against them. Pretty impressive stuff from a defence that was on pace to be historically one of the worst ever, to right the ship and, in an offensive-minded league, hold every team they’ve played except one to under 30 points for over three months.
Offensively, for the Elks, the BC Lions are a pretty middle-of-the-pack team defensively, except for a few categories — they’re seventh against the rush and first in QB sacks. The first part of that? You have Justin Rankin. Let me elaborate… You have Justin Rankin running the ball against a team that’s third-worst in the league at defending the run? Boy, do I love that matchup. Justin Rankin is a guy you can pencil in for 100 scrimmage yards almost every game. But the Elks might need him to get 200 in this one. I say that because with the frequency BC gets to the QB, Cody will need to get that ball out fast when they pass — not something he’s really known for. That means checkdown routes. Who’s he going to be checking down to? More likely than not, Justin Rankin. This, coupled with the fact that the way to stop the pass rush is to run the ball, means Justin could have 150 or more scrimmage yards. If he can reach those numbers, that will more often than not equal time of possession. That equals sustained drives. That equals keeping BC’s high-flying offence off the field. That has to be the key to this game.
Another thing I’d add in the passing game is to keep it safe, which is very boring, don’t get me wrong. But this isn’t exactly a core built for 40-yard bombs down the sidelines. The Elks can be good for a few of those a game here and there, but it shouldn’t be their bread and butter. It should be drags, hitches, and slants. Seven yards here, eight yards there, six yards over there. Anything that leads to those sustained drives — and, more importantly, things that play to your quarterback’s strengths.
So can the Elks win? Yeah, I think so. Heck, I think they do. You could make the argument that the only team flying higher than the Elks right now is BC. But BC has something Edmonton doesn’t — a guaranteed playoff spot. That’s a factor. Hungry dogs run faster.
Elks 33, Lions 22.
Now, before we go, what about Coach Kilam’s comments on Tre Ford? “He still has a future in the CFL for sure…” “….When we made the change, we said it wasn’t the end of him…”
Now listen — is the implication here that Tre’s time in Edmonton is probably over? Yes. But in regard to the 3DownNation (who I really love, shoutout Justin and John and everyone over there who do amazing work) article titled ‘Mark Kilam believes Tre Ford “still has a future in the CFL” but doesn’t seem to be with Edmonton Elks’, I think that’s just a touch of a reach in regard to what Coach Kilam actually said. Again, is his time probably over? Probably, yeah. But Kilam was pretty quick to also mention in that post-practice media availability that that’s not their focus right now. Their focus is on BC. If he had gone on to say, “He still has a future in the CFL for sure,” and then added, “wherever that is,” or “on whichever team he’s with,” that’d be a different story. As it stood, it made me think quite bluntly that it’s not something he’s given a whole lot of thought to at this point in the season, and that’s understandable given that they’re on track to play essentially their third must-win game in a row tonight in BC.
Nothing about his quote or phrasing made me think he was shutting the door on Tre Ford with the Elks sometime in the future. Now, I want to be clear — I don’t think Tre’s future is here with the Elks, but it’s not necessarily because of the response or phrasing of the question he was asked. I think it was a question thrown at him randomly two days before the BC game, and he gave the first response that came to mind. I could be wrong… I could be way wrong. Maybe he’s given it more thought than I give him credit for. Maybe I’m way underestimating his response. I just think it’s being a touch overblown right now.
Is the quote something to think about if you’re an Elks fan wondering about the future of the position? Definitely. Do I think the headline of 3DownNation’s article was maybe a touch reactionary and relied more on implication than response? Also yes.
