As the days begin to get shorter and the breeze starts to cool, it means one thing: playoff football.
The Edmonton Elks have clinched a home playoff game and are one win away from clinching the West Division. The last time the Elks hosted a playoff game and won the West was in 2015. Their last playoff win at home was also in 2015, which was the last time they won the Grey Cup. The current worry about the team getting back to the Grey Cup is their recent offensive play.
Despite winning six of their last seven games, the Elks have had small struggles offensively, making games harder to close out. A win this week would keep the playoffs in Alberta, and an offensive explosion couldn’t come at a better time. The Elks sit at 12-4, and securing home field through the West playoffs would be huge for a team that’s 7-1 at home.
Remarkably, we are talking about offensive struggles given the year Cody Fajardo and other notable Elks stars are having. Fajardo is having a career year with personal bests in passing yards and touchdowns, while Austin Mack ranks in the top five in receiving yards. The Elks have at times, struggled to run the ball lately while mixing in ShunDerrick Powell and Justin Rankin. If Rankin can get back to getting some huge runs, it would benefit the offence largely.
Slow Starts
The Edmonton Elks have played very good football in the second half of games. The main issue as of late has been slow starts on offence, as it seems to take a long time for the group to find a rhythm and establish a strong attack. The last time the Elks scored a touchdown in the first quarter was back on Aug. 1st against the Saskatchewan Roughriders, when running back Justin Rankin scored on a three-yard rushing touchdown on the Elks’ opening drive. We are well into October now, and it has been a long time since that point.
Since Week 9, the Elks have averaged 11.11 points in the first half compared to 20.67 points in the second half (or 21.56 points if you include overtime). This proves the team has been a slow starter, but once the halftime break hits, they turn it on when the game matters most.
When the Elks lead at halftime, they have won 10 straight games. That shows how important it is for this team to build an early cushion. Similarly, the Elks have won 12 consecutive games when leading after three quarters, showing how quickly they can close things out after the break. As much as Elks fans have loved to watch all of the comeback wins, I think we would all agree we want to see the Elks dominate from start to finish.
The first quarter especially has been very quiet in recent weeks. It feels like the offence takes at least a full quarter to start gaining key yardage. It will be interesting to see how they adjust in the playoffs to get off to an earlier start.
Red Zone Struggles
The biggest talking point lately has been the struggles in the red zone. The Elks have had no trouble moving the ball down the field, but as soon as the field shrinks, they struggle to punch it into the end zone. That may partly stem from issues with the run game, but the full-season statistics back it up.
For the 2026 CFL season, the Elks rank second-last in red zone touchdown percentage. They have had the most opportunities in the league with 65, but have only converted 34 of them, which equals a 52.1 per cent touchdown rate. The only team worse is the Ottawa Redblacks, who sit just two percent lower. Meanwhile, teams like Montreal, BC, Calgary, and Saskatchewan are all operating above 70 percent. Imagine if the Elks could even reach the 60 per cent mark; their offence would be dominant and they would be in an even better spot.
Cody Fajardo’s red zone passing percentage also takes a massive dip. Right now, among all CFL starters, Fajardo ranks last in red zone completion percentage at 51.61 per cent. He has also thrown three interceptions in the red zone, second-most among all quarterbacks behind Toronto Argonauts pivot Chad Kelly. Fajardo has been one of the most accurate passers through his CFL career, so it is glaring when his red zone completion rate drops by 20 percentage points compared to his usual numbers. Something just has not been clicking near the goal line.
My Thoughts
Overall, I would not panic. This team is at the top of the West for a reason and has proven they can win games and generate a high-level offence. They have continually shown why they deserve to be the top seed in the West division, and even though they have hit offensive dry spots, there are times when they absolutely explode.
I might be nitpicking a bit, but looking at the stats, it is crucial to recognize the dip in offensive production. This Elks team is doing something special right now, and if they can sort out their starts, convert in the red zone, and get the run game going, things will shift into high gear. They have a massive game against Winnipeg coming up, and it is going to feel like a true playoff test for both sides. They must grab a win on Friday to secure some well-deserved rest next week if they clinch the West.
Three Keys to Beating Winnipeg
- Quick Start: The Elks need to get out to a fast start to make Friday easier on themselves. They have won 10 consecutive games when leading at halftime and 12 consecutive games when leading after three quarters, so they cannot afford to leave a comeback until the fourth quarter in a playoff-style game.
- Establish the Run Game: ShunDerrick Powell has looked phenomenal over the past few weeks, but they also need to get Justin Rankin going. It has been a little while since he had a monster game, and they could use one on Friday night to help clinch the West Division. The Elks have won eight consecutive games when Rankin rushes for over 100 yards. In his last two games against Winnipeg, Rankin has totaled over 110 all-purpose yards. If they can get him rolling like that, it is going to be a fun night at Commonwealth Stadium.
- Continue Playing Strong Defence: It is hard to overstate how good the Edmonton defence has been this year. They have been fantastic, and when games get tight, the defence rises to the occasion. They say defence wins championships for a reason, and with the regular season winding down, this unit looks elite. As long as they stick to what they have been doing, I like the Elks over the Winnipeg Blue Bombers any day of the week.
